Sunday, December 16, 2012

At the mercy of RBI

So I was right that markets will take a breather last week, but I was wrong why. Well not for the first time and hence time to share some learnings here. Macroeconomic events by themselves can not dictate market momentum in any major way, rather they only shape narratives to reinforce market dynamics for a certain while. For example, not a soul in the world knows whether 120k NFP addition next month will be bullish for the market or 160k. It would only depend on the context of the market at that time and a little bit on what market consensus will estimate then. In the slow changing world that we live in, mind you, nothing is a game changer. And certainly not that thing which an economist is telling you.

Having taken a heavy dose of self deprecation, I hope ordinary folks should start liking me now- my cherished dream since long. The market will correct further this week. In fact my guess is market wouldnt recover till rest of December. Central bank is at a kissing distance from victory over inflation, and whether they double their gusto or choose to uncork the bubbly, will be known this week. The only reason Nifty remains a medium term buy is due to Chidambaram. He knows his stuff and is the best man in charge.

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